Ambitious national commitments, international agreements and rapid technological progress have prompted countries around the world to turn increasingly renewable energy to expand their power infrastructure. However, the variability of solar and wind energy – two key sources for renewable power generation – presents new challenges.
Proactive energy planners will address the challenges of variable renewable energy (VRE) integration directly, starting with long-term investment choices. Techno-economic assessments can help to inform policy development and set optimal targets for renewable power uptake. Scenario modelling, meanwhile, has become a critical planning tool for the power sector, with considerable knowledge being acquired in certain markets on how to represent VRE in long-term models.
This report highlights the findings from AVRIL (“Addressing Variable Renewable Energy in Long-term Energy Planning”), a project by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) that has identified the best practices in long-term planning and modelling to represent high shares of VRE.
This report is also available in Japanese (日本語版), courtesy of the Ministry of Environment of Japan.
The report includes two main parts:
The solutions presented here, although applicable in many countries, have been adapted to support energy planners and practitioners in developing and emerging economies, where the range of modelling options may be comparatively limited.
See also a subsequent study, Insights on planning for power system regulators.